Skyline readers: I am preparing a series of Sci-Tech talks, my annual update on climate prospects. Advance comments would be most welcome. The most valuable comments are those that tell me where you stumbled, tuned out, or where you initially misinterpreted. Don’t feel that you need to rewrite something in order to comment. Just flag the stumbles.
A quarter-century ago, the editor of The Atlantic spent a week trying to persuade me to write what became their January 1998 cover story, “The Great Climate Flip-Flop.” It was the first long magazine article (8,300 words) on abrupt climate change and “Gulf Stream” shutdowns. It could use updating but that is not my present concern and there are better people to do that job.
It is time to cover the 21st-century surprises that signal the need for rapid removal of the excess CO2 overhead. I have broken it down into nine aspects.
1. Climate action now needs the medical mindset 5
2. ‘Think again’ about the climate diagnosis and treatment plan 9
3. The carbon dioxide hanging over our heads 15
4. Heatwaves will need A/C powered by small modular reactors 19
5. Will climate change be gradual? (That’s so 20th-century!) 23
6. 21st-century surges in extreme weather 27
7. Climate surprises and slippery slopes 33
8. Heading off climate-triggered collapse 37
9. Design and prototype CO2 scrubbers 41
Download the latest draft, hidden at faculty.washington.edu/wcalvin/2022/ABC.pdf
